Weighing percentages

A friend was debating on getting a vaccine, and asked me what I thought she should do or consider.

Here’s my (non-expert) advice:

If you don't get a vaccine, there's an X% chance that you might get hospitalized.

If you do get a vaccine (regardless of brand), there's a X% chance you might still get sick (but still a X% chance you’ll be hospitalized).

And, if you are vaccinated, there’s a X% chance you might have adverse side-effects.

Finding out what those numbers are depends on where you live, how you get your news, and who you trust. But, either way, it’s a math problem.

Sure, it doesn’t feel that way. But so long as you trust science (and you really should), it is.

It’s hard to make these types of decisions, because most of us aren’t statisticians. And, even if we know how it works and why it’s important, we tend to neglect it.

Because, of course, math is hard. And, because, more often, we’re out of practice. How often do we make rational decisions based on cold-hard numbers and credible, citation-filled facts?

It’s hard to make decisions with numbers. Harder still, to do your homework, to know what those numbers are and what they really mean.

But it’s also the best alternative we have against making decisions based solely on our feelings. Or worse, being deceived by the latest pseudo-science swindler or fake-news commentator of the day.