Confidence, certainty, and conviction
Confidence is a belief in something based on feedback.
Certainty is a belief in something based on reliable facts.
Conviction is showing that you believe in what you’re saying.
People get into trouble when they confuse the three—so it helps to acknowledge when the actions we take (and the actions we defend) are based on one or the other.
Successfully making ‘turkey with all the trimmings’ requires confidence.
You can know with certainty that turkey is a bird.
Assuring your spouse you’ll handle dinner is act of conviction.