Assumptions and predictions

Our beliefs inform what we do. That much we know.

If you believe that ‘no one is going respond to your sales pitch’, you’re not going to spend the extra effort to make it better.

And if you believe that you’re not smart enough to make the cut (or the grade), you’re not going to invest much in doing so. Because you can’t.

This is a perfectly reasonable way to make rational decisions about what to do and what not to. Pending that our decisions, or rather, the beliefs from which we make our decisions, are true.

And there lies the kicker. Because, more often than not, our beliefs aren’t shaped by actual reality. They’re shaped by our assumptions—something we’ve assumed.

Instead, we make decisions (all the time) based on what we think is true, based on how we think the world works, or what’s possible. Assumptions that aren’t always rational, factual, or constant.

Fortunately, there’s an alternative. As you may have guessed, the antithesis to making decisions based on assumptions, is to make them based on predictions.

Because a prediction—something we predict—is not an assumption. It’s open-ended.

You can predict something, write it down, and fact-check it later. Or, better: you can place a ‘small bet’ on that prediction (by taking a small step in that direction), and see if your prediction holds true.

Differentiating fact from fiction, or rather, an assumption from a prediction, is a powerful tactic, and exactly what we need to do if we hope to make clearer decisions.